Taiwan macro regime labels — an ex-post tag on data that already happened
The standard misreading of a regime page is to read a state label as “what happens next”. This page deliberately refuses to extend an ex-post label into a forecast. A regime label is an ex-post tag on data that already happened: it describes how an interval looked under a given window and threshold, not that the pattern will persist. Just as important, this is market-level aggregate data and not a per-stock dataset — under one macro label, individual sectors and names can move in opposite directions. Because regimes are parameter-dependent, a different window or threshold produces a different history, so we print the parameters beside every row instead of hiding them behind a confident-looking label.
What the fields are, and the state of each interval
Each row returns the interval start and end, the state label, the window length and threshold that produced it, the input series names and the as-of date. Every row is marked as an ex-post tag rather than a live judgement, and it makes no claim about the period that follows it.
The most recent interval is marked not yet settled. When the window is incomplete we return undetermined and name the missing days, instead of publishing a label that later gets rewritten.
Different parameters, different history
Over the same history, a shorter window carves out more and choppier states; a longer window carves out fewer and smoother ones. Neither is truer — one simply has its assumptions written down. So this page does not offer the single correct segmentation; it offers one disclosed parameter set and the segmentation it implies.
When comparing two regime tables, compare parameters before conclusions. Two tables built on different windows are not comparable: the market did not change, the ruler did.
No forecasts and no traffic lights
We forecast neither the business cycle nor the index nor turning points. Tagging and forecasting are different acts: one defines data you already have, the other bets on data you do not. Phrases such as "you should buy now" or "time to add exposure" will never appear here, because a regime label cannot support them.
This is market-level description and not a per-stock instruction. A macro tag is not a prescription for anyone's position size.
What this page must not be used for
No ranking, no screening, no price targets, no entry or exit timing. A macro label cannot be pushed down onto a single name: your company's revenue, industry cycle and capital structure are simply not inside this aggregate series.
The right use is as a starting question: how was this interval labelled under these parameters, does the label survive a different window, and did the name you are researching actually follow that shape? The answer lives in your own per-stock data.