Taiwan Revenue Momentum — a rate of change, not next month's estimate
Revenue momentum is most often read as “next month will stay strong”. It is not. A year-on-year or month-on-month rate is an arithmetic ratio of two already-published numbers — it belongs entirely to the past and contains no information about the future. Momentum looks predictive because it often runs in one direction, but that persistence comes from base effects and seasonality, not from a guarantee of continuation. This page describes the change and flags what distorts it.
What the four figures say
Year-on-year, month-on-month, cumulative year-to-date growth and the raw monthly series, each returned with its numerator, denominator and data month so it can be recomputed. They answer four different questions and frequently disagree; we show them side by side and never blend them into a “momentum score”, which would require weights with no basis.
Base effects: the same growth rate can mean two opposite things
A year-on-year rate divides by last year's same month. An unusually weak base — a shutdown, deferred recognition, an industry trough — makes this year look excellent, and vice versa. That is a story about the denominator, not about this year. So we return the denominator itself and its position in the historical series, and flag it when it departs sharply from its own history. We do not smooth or publish a “base-adjusted” growth rate, because deciding what counts as abnormal is a judgement that should not hide inside a number.
Monthly revenue is coarse data by nature
It is unaudited, usually excludes consolidation adjustments, and tracks shipment timing closely. One-off recognitions, last year's acquisitions or spin-offs and product-mix shifts all move momentum without touching profit — revenue growth is not earnings growth, and with margins falling the two can point opposite ways. Everything is gated by the statutory disclosure deadline so a backtest cannot see the future; unavailable periods are marked undetermined, never zero-filled.
What this page is not for
It does not forecast next month's revenue, score momentum, rank companies, or emit a signal or target price, and it publishes no “revenue breakout” list. Momentum is a place to start asking why a month jumped — base, one-off, or structural change — and that answer lives in the filings, not in the percentage.